In 2024, the anticipated dominance of AI in political campaigns fell short of expectations, particularly regarding deepfakes. While many predicted that generative AI would significantly influence the political landscape and pose risks to democratic processes, current analysis suggests that its actual impact was minimal.
One notable moment was the emergence of an AI candidate in Wyoming, known as the Virtual Integrated Citizen (VIC), created by Victor Miller. This campaign flagged potential changes in how candidates could leverage AI, but as the year progressed, experts reflected on earlier concerns about deepfakes overshadowing the political discourse. Many campaigns opted not to use AI-generated deepfakes to avoid the complexities of emerging laws against deceptive ads.
A study by the Knight First Amendment Institute found that approximately half of the deepfake instances during elections were not intended to deceive the public. This matched observations from various analysts who noted that deepfakes rarely shifted public opinion but often fueled existing partisan divides.
While blatantly misleading deepfakes were created, such as those in Bangladesh that urged voters to boycott elections, they did not manifest in widespread deception. Concerns about AI-generated misinformation did materialize—most notably, political figures claimed that genuine media was fabricated, a phenomenon dubbed the "liar’s dividend."
Beyond the more sensational aspects of deepfakes, AI found practical applications behind the scenes. Campaigns utilized AI to craft emails, develop advertising content, and strategize outreach. For example, in Indonesia, AI tools built on ChatGPT created speeches and campaign plans, while in India, Prime Minister Modi employed AI translation software to engage a diverse electorate.
Experts believe that while generative AI’s immediate effects on elections were less pronounced than feared, its integration into campaign strategies could pave the way for more inclusive democratic processes. AI can assist smaller campaigns in effectively communicating with voters, potentially leveling the playing field.
Overall, though the dramatic predictions surrounding AI in elections did not fully realize, this year marked a significant step in understanding and integrating technology into political processes. The tools are evolving, and their adoption is still in its early stages, suggesting a more profound role for AI in future elections.
