In the aftermath of Charlie Kirk’s killing, the Heritage Foundation swiftly moved to advocate for the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) to classify “Transgender Ideology-Inspired Violent Extremism” (TIVE) as a domestic terrorism threat. This push aligns with President Donald Trump’s recent executive order aimed at combating vaguely defined domestic terror networks. The Heritage Foundation’s document characterizes "transgender ideology" as an erroneous belief that rejects biological determinism regarding human sex. They supported their position with a contentious assertion: that 50% of major non-gang-related school shootings since 2015 involved transgender ideology.
When asked for evidence about this claim, the Heritage Foundation referenced a tweet by Roger Severino, one of its vice presidents, asserting that out of eight scrutinized school shootings, four involved a transgender shooter or were potentially linked to a trans-related motive. However, this claim is heavily disputed.
According to the K-12 School Shooting Database, which chronicles all school-based gun incidents since 1966, there have been at least 48 school shootings since 2015, but only three shooters are identified in credible reports as transgender or undergoing gender-affirming care. The Nashville police concluded that the shooter there was not driven by an ideological agenda but rather sought notoriety. Similarly, the Colorado shooter cited bullying and mental health issues as motivations.
In some instances, the identification of shooters as transgender is not straightforward. For instance, a shooter in Minneapolis had legally changed their name and claimed gender identity conflicts but lacked public evidence of consistently identifying as transgender. The attack was motivated by a broader animosity towards various groups.
Importantly, the K-12 database indicates that 12.5% of school shooters since 2015 do not have their gender data available, complicating any conclusions about trends. Other high-profile shootings, such as those in Parkland and Uvalde, involved shooters with histories of grievance and misogyny—none linked to transgender ideology. In fact, researchers highlight that white supremacist and far-right extremist beliefs are more closely correlated with ideologically motivated gun violence.
Rachel Carroll Rivas and R. G. Cravens from the Southern Poverty Law Center affirm that there are no credible studies linking a majority of school shootings to transgender individuals, emphasizing that they are more often victims of gun violence.
The FBI defines a mass shooting as an event where four or more victims are killed by gunfire, yet the Heritage Foundation’s criteria for “major” shootings adjusted the pool to a select few. Their methodology creates a misleading claim of a narrative rather than reflecting reality, relying on a narrow dataset that skews findings to support predetermined conclusions.
Critics argue that this focus diverts necessary attention from the real drivers of violence, such as extremist groups and individuals with far-right grievances, and repositions the target on marginalized communities. Kelley Robinson, president of the Human Rights Campaign, denounced these efforts, stressing they redefine political opposition as extremism, leading to dangerous consequences for societal cohesion.
As the Trump administration cuts back on resources for countering domestic terrorism, these actions by the Heritage Foundation appear to work in tandem with ongoing initiatives aimed at stigmatising specific groups and reorienting the national security framework towards targeting marginalized communities.
