Last month, a significant incident occurred when Iran’s Tehran Times published what they claimed to be satellite evidence showcasing the destruction of “American radar.” However, this so-called evidence was swiftly identified as a manipulated image derived from a year-old Google Earth photograph taken in Bahrain. Researchers quickly debunked the claim by aligning the image with previous satellite captures, demonstrating that it was a fabrication rather than accurate evidence.
This small act of disinformation illuminates the broader, escalating challenges regarding satellite infrastructure amid ongoing conflicts in the Gulf region. The systems that journalists, analysts, and governments depend on to acquire clear insights into war are becoming increasingly unreliable. As tensions rise between the U.S., Israel, and Iran—with missile and drone activities pervading Gulf airspace—control of satellite data is now being heavily contested.
Control Over Unreliable Infrastructure
The reliability of satellite data raises the question of who controls it. In the Gulf, much of the satellite infrastructure is managed by state-affiliated organizations utilizing geostationary satellites, which serve purposes including communication and weather forecasting. Noteworthy operators include Space42 in the UAE, Arabsat in Saudi Arabia, and Es’hailSat in Qatar, all operating under strict governmental oversight.
On the other side, Iran is developing its own independent satellite system. Recent launches have seen Iran deploy satellites like Paya (also referred to as Tolou-3) to enhance its surveillance capabilities, eliminating reliance on Western technology. The Middle Eastern satellite communications market is rapidly expanding, with a valuation of over $4 billion, forecasted to grow due to increasing aerial and maritime connectivity needs.
Access Restrictions Frustrate Verification
Commercial satellite fleets, such as those from Planet Labs and Maxar, operate under different standards than government-run systems, with access being a crucial constraint. Governments typically take priority for data requests, leaving media outlets and NGOs limited and reliant on subscriptions. In March, Planet Labs announced a two-week extension in delays for imagery over the Middle East to prevent misuse by adversaries targeting U.S. and NATO forces.
Open-source intelligence reporter Maryam Ishani Thompson noted that losing access to Planet Labs’s capabilities has severely affected reporting. The speed and volume of imagery previously available are essential for verification processes—if access is curtailed, creating fact-based narratives becomes immensely more complex. Moreover, a shift in this landscape has led to increased reliance on Chinese satellite platforms and partnerships with countries like Russia that provide imagery access to Iran.
The Imperative of Documentation
When disputing false narratives becomes problematic due to lack of verifiable data, operational consequences emerge. Ishani explained that her verification depended on regularly referenced historical imagery. The static nature of the Tehran Times image was flagged thanks to comparability with recent photos. Without adequate comparative data, disproving misinformation becomes difficult.
As noted by Victoria Samson from the Secure World Foundation, commercial satellite companies often prioritize U.S. government contracts, fostering a culture of self-censorship to avoid regulatory burdens. This convoluted scenario blurs the lines of accountability due to the lack of a definitive regulatory framework for private companies working in conflict zones. Thus, the responsibility for control is clouded by the complex nature of space governance laid out decades ago.
Increased GPS Disruption in Aviation
The ramifications of these issues extend to the aviation sector, with reports of heightened GPS interference since the outbreak of conflict. A pilot familiar with operations over the Gulf revealed that GPS jamming during flights has become commonplace. When GPS signals are blocked, pilots revert to backup navigation processes, relying on older technology, which can detract from safety measures.
The pilot described this shift as concerning yet routine among crews operating in the region. The infrastructure meant to promote safety and effective navigation has thus turned into a point of contention, highlighting that access to reliable satellite data is more than a strategic asset in warfare—it is crucial to operational safety and accuracy.
As control of satellite infrastructure in the Gulf falters, the fragmentation of data access influences both the speed at which misinformation can be challenged and the safety of overflights in a disrupted airspace.
